Why a measly 100,000 job openings is normal for the Trump economy

Employers posted 7.36 million vacancies in June, down from 7.54 million in May, the Labor Department said Tuesday. The numbers were in line with economist expectations. Openings rose by 97,000 at warehouse, transportation and utility companies and 39,000 at federal government agencies. Openings dropped at wholesalers and manufacturers of nondurable goods.

Layoffs were little-changed at 1.8 million, and the number of people quitting their jobs — a sign of confidence in their prospects — rose slightly.

The gross number of people hired — before subtracting those who quit or lost their jobs — rose slightly 5.3 million. But hiring is weaker than it was in the jobs boom that followed pandemic lockdowns. Then, gross monthly hiring often topped 6 million.

Still, the U.S. job market has remained sturdy despite a surge in energy prices caused by the conflict in Iran, rebounding from a 2025 slump. Before the war in Iran, roughly 15 million barrels of Persian Gulf oil were shipped each day through the Strait of Hormuz. The strait borders Iran, which has fired on ships attempting to transit the passage.

So far this year, companies, government agencies and nonprofits have added an average 92,000 jobs a month. That is up from fewer than 10,000 a month last year — fewest outside a recession since 2002 — as employers held off on hiring because of high interest rates and uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump’s unpredictable economic policies.

When the Labor Department releases its jobs report for July on Friday, it is expected to show job gains of 100,000, up from 57,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to have remained at a low 4.2%, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet.

In years past, 100,000 new jobs a month would have been mediocre. But Trump’s immigration crackdown and the ongoing retirements of baby boomers mean that fewer people are competing for work. So the economy doesn’t need as many new jobs as it once did to keep the unemployment rate from rising. In fact, some economists believe the “break-even″ rate could be nearly as low as zero jobs.