Key Takeaways
- SBI’s Solana partnership raised concerns about competition with XRPL.
- The Motley Fool’s Johnny Rice predicts XRP price could lose another 50%.
- XRP’s weekly RSI recently flashed a rare signal that previously preceded a 1,100% rally.
XRP’s price could fall another 50% or more, according to a bearish forecast that has placed the token’s outlook under fresh scrutiny.
The warning comes as SBI Holdings, long viewed as one of Ripple’s most important institutional allies, partners with the Solana Foundation to build an on-chain financial market in Japan.
The venture will develop stablecoin, tokenized asset, and settlement infrastructure on Solana, prompting debate over whether SBI is shifting momentum away from the XRP Ledger or pursuing a broader multichain strategy.
SBI and Solana Target Japan’s Financial Markets
SBI Holdings and the Solana Foundation announced the partnership on July 13, saying they intended to connect Japanese financial assets with markets across Asia and the rest of the world.
Under the agreement, the Solana Foundation will acquire an equity interest in SBI R3 Japan alongside existing shareholders SBI Holdings and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group.
The company is expected to be renamed SBI Solana Global following the completion of standard corporate procedures.
According to SBI’s announcement, the venture will focus on five areas:
- Stablecoins, including yen-denominated JPYSC
- Tokenizing corporate bonds
- Coss-border settlement infrastructure
- On-chain financial services to institutional investors
- Payment infrastructure for AI agents
The businesses will be developed with deployment on Solana as a “core premise,” SBI said.
Is the Solana Partnership Bad News for XRP Price?
The announcement quickly attracted attention from XRP supporters because of SBI’s longstanding relationship with Ripple.
SBI and Ripple established SBI Ripple Asia in 2016 to promote blockchain-based payments across Japan and other Asian markets.
For skeptics, the new venture has created potential competitive pressure because stablecoins and institutional settlement are also areas in which Ripple and the XRP Ledger are seeking growth.
However, lawyer and XRP supporter Bill Morgan mocked the suggestion that SBI should limit itself to a single ecosystem.
“How is the XRP cope machine managing this news. Imagine an entity like SBI Holdings not diversifying in crypto partnerships and holdings,” Morgan wrote on X.
Crypto commentator Wendy O responded that the development was positive.
“It’s bullish to me. Interoperability is going to be important. TradFi doesn’t play the cult game,” she said.
Morgan later said investors should not need to “cope with” the agreement, describing it as positive for the wider crypto industry and not inherently negative for XRPL.
Another X user pointed to Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s previous support for interoperability, writing:
“We’ve heard Garlinghouse say the future is multi-chain several times.”
There is also little evidence that SBI is abandoning Ripple.
On June 24, SBI and Ripple launched RLUSD in Japan, describing the launch as the next stage of a relationship that stretches back a decade.
The Solana partnership may therefore reflect SBI’s willingness to use different networks for different products rather than a direct replacement of XRP or XRPL.
Will the SBI Deal Affect XRP’s Price?
XRP was trading at approximately $1.07 on Tuesday, down 6.5% over the past month, according to market data.
There was no immediate evidence of a sharp sell-off directly caused by the SBI announcement.
CoinMarketCap’s analysis attributed XRP’s latest weakness mainly to broader market pressure and a technical breakdown below $1.07.
It identified $1 as the next major level of psychological support.
A recovery above $1.07 could allow XRP to consolidate and potentially retest resistance near $1.11, while remaining below that level would keep its short-term structure under pressure.
Motley Fool Warns XRP Price Could Lose Another 50%
Not all market watchers expect XRP to recover from its recent decline.
Motley Fool contributing analyst Johnny Rice has predicted that XRP could eventually lose at least half its current value.
“I think there’s further to fall — a lot,” Rice wrote in a July 13 analysis.
At XRP’s current price of approximately $1.07, another 50% decline would take the token to around $0.54.
Rice said his bearish forecast was not based on failures at Ripple, which he argued had performed strongly by acquiring companies and securing partnerships.
Instead, he questioned whether Ripple’s commercial growth necessarily creates demand for XRP.
According to Rice, some of Ripple’s services used by financial institutions do not require the token.
Although XRP can serve as a bridge asset for cross-border payments, Ripple’s dollar-pegged RLUSD stablecoin can increasingly perform a similar role.
That distinction is also relevant to the SBI debate.
A financial institution can expand its relationship with Ripple while simultaneously using other blockchains without generating significant additional demand for XRP.
“I think XRP will be trading 50% lower or more,” he said.
Rare XRP Signal Returns
The debate comes as traders monitor a rare technical signal that previously appeared before one of XRP’s largest long-term rallies.
Crypto analyst Lark Davis said in a recent video that XRP’s weekly Relative Strength Index had entered oversold territory for only the second time since the token launched.
“In 12 years, XRP has hit oversold on the weekly RSI. Two times,” Davis said.
The previous occurrence came during the 2022 bear market, when XRP’s weekly RSI fell below 30, and its price dropped to around $0.29.
XRP subsequently recovered and reached approximately $3.66 in July 2025, representing an increase of more than 1,100% from the 2022 low.
If XRP repeated an 1,100% gain from its current price of approximately $1.07, it would reach around $12.84.
However, XRP now has a substantially larger market capitalization, meaning an equivalent percentage increase would require far greater capital inflows.
“That doesn’t guarantee the same outcome this time,” he said.
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