Based on the 4-hour chart, the US dollar remains in a corrective phase after failing to sustain its recent peak. The index is currently trading below the 200-period moving average, reflecting persistent short-term selling pressure. Additionally, the break below the ascending trendline has weakened bullish momentum, while buyers are attempting to defend a key support zone that could prove decisive in determining the index’s next directional move.
Conversely, momentum indicators suggest that downside pressure is gradually easing, leaving room for a technical rebound if the index manages to hold above the current support zone. However, any recovery will require a decisive breakout above the first resistance level to restore bullish confidence and trigger a broader rebound toward previous highs. As long as the remains below the 200-period moving average, the near-term technical bias continues to favor sellers.
In my view, the most likely scenario is for the index to remain in a sideways-to-bearish consolidation phase until fresh economic catalysts emerge, particularly the upcoming U.S. Retail Sales report. Price action around the current support levels will be critical. Holding above support could pave the way for a rebound toward key resistance areas, while a confirmed breakdown would reinforce the ongoing corrective move and expose lower price targets in the sessions ahead.
Support: 100.40 – 100.20 – 99.80
Resistance: 100.75 – 101.00 – 101.30
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